Measure and Improve Decision Quality in Professional Sport

We help professional sports teams and individuals make better decisions through improved calibration and applied decision science techniques.

With combined experience of over 50 years working in professional sport, we support teams in the NFL, NBA, MLS, United Rugby Championship, UEFA Champions League, and National Soccer Teams to improve their decision-making.

What is a Full Decision-Making Profile?

It all starts with Calibration—how well your confidence matches your accuracy. Elite decision-makers know when they know—and when they don’t.

When you’re well-calibrated:

• Estimate risk more accurately
• Communicate uncertainty clearly
• Align better across disciplines
• Build trust through reliability

What We Measure

Five Evidence-Based Metrics That Matter

Your assessment is built on the same scoring logic used in meteorology, geopolitical forecasting, and national intelligence analysis—because sport decisions are still decisions under uncertainty.

📉 BRIER SCORE (Overall Decision Quality)
One number that summarises how good your probabilistic decisions are (0 = perfect)
The Brier score is the gold-standard measure of forecast quality. It captures whether you’re accurate and whether your confidence is appropriately sized. Lower scores = better decision quality.

📊 CALIBRATION (Confidence vs Reality)
How reliably your confidence matches your hit rate
If you say “80% confident,” do you tend to be correct about 8 times out of 10? Calibration reveals overconfidence (too certain) or underconfidence (too cautious) and helps you tighten your judgment.

🎯 DISCRIMINATION (Right vs Wrong Separation)
Whether you’re more confident when you’re right than when you’re wrong
Strong discrimination means your “strong yes” decisions are genuinely more likely to be correct than your “not sure” decisions—showing you can sense when you have a strong read versus a guess.

🔍 RESOLUTION (Sharpness of Predictions)
How effectively you use the full confidence range
Resolution reflects whether you make meaningfully different probability judgments across situations (e.g., sometimes 55%, sometimes 85%) rather than defaulting to the middle. Better resolution = sharper, more informative decisions.

🌫️ UNCERTAINTY BASELINE (Difficulty of the Environment)
A reality check on how predictable the questions were overall
Some domains are inherently more uncertain than others. Your uncertainty baseline helps you interpret performance fairly by showing how “predictable” the environment was—not just how you performed within it.

Why All Five Matter

Research shows calibration and discrimination are different skills:

You can have good domain knowledge (discrimination) but be overconfident (poor calibration).

Or you can be well-calibrated on average, but struggle to tell easy decisions from difficult ones.

Top performers excel at both:

✓ They know which situations they truly understand (discrimination)

✓ They accurately assess their confidence in each situation (calibration)

How It Works

Step 1: Answer Questions

Answer sport-relevant questions from different sports science and medicine categories

Step 2: Rate Your Confidence

For each answer, use our interactive slider to rate your confidence from 50% to 100%

Step 3: Get Your Results

• Calibration Score: Are you overconfident or underconfident?

• Discrimination Score: Can you tell when you’re right vs wrong?

• Brier Score: Your overall judgement quality

• Personalised feedback based on your actual performance

Step 4: Analyse Your Judgement

See your calibration curve plotted against the “perfect calibration line”, and see how your results compare to our professional benchmarks

Step 5: Track Your Progress

Both skills improve with different training. We show you which needs work and how to fix it.

What Makes Us Different

Designed specifically for professional sports—created and tested by practitioners who understand your decisions.

Our Professional-Grade Analytics provide:

✓ Research-validated metrics (Brier score, discrimination index)
✓ Personalised feedback based on your actual performance patterns
✓ Separate training recommendations for calibration vs discrimination
✓ Historical tracking to measure improvement in both skills
✓ 1000+ professionally-crafted questions across 10+ categories
✓ The same methodology used by forecasting professionals

This isn’t a personality test. It’s a diagnostic tool used in high-stakes fields like intelligence analysis, meteorology, and clinical medicine.

Who Is This For?

• Performance Directors
• Coaches and Managers
• Sports Scientists
• Strength & Conditioning Coaches
• Medical and Physio Staff
• Performance Analysts
• Especially impactful when decisions are shared by the multi-disciplinary team

Whether you’re a coach making selection decisions, a sports scientist analysing data, or a physiotherapist selecting a treatment method—calibration matters.

Pricing

£199 for 12 Tests—ideal for individuals, small staff groups, and repeat testing over time.

• Complete calibration assessment (50 questions, 45-60 minutes)
• Instant results with detailed analytics
• Calibration curve showing your exact pattern
• Discrimination analysis
• Personalised improvement recommendations
• Historical tracking across all 12 tests
• Export tests to PDF or share directly on social media (coming soon)

Research shows measurable improvement after just ONE training session. Imagine what 10 can do.